Estun (002747): System integration business contracted in the fourth quarter

The third-quarter performance in 19 was not as good as we expected the first three quarters of 2019 results announced by Estun: 1?
3Q19 achieved operating income9.

68 ppm, a decrease of 9 per year.

1%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

5.7 billion, down 18 a year.

9%.

In a single quarter, the company’s operating income for the third quarter of 19 was 2.

86 ppm, a decrease of 15 per year.

8%; net profit attributable to mothers was 650,000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95.

5%; 3Q19 company deducted non-attributed net profit of -8.26 million yuan, many times turned negative.

The company’s performance was lower than our expectation, mainly due to the reduced expansion of the system integration business.

Management expenses, R & D expenses increased significantly, and cash flow turned negative.

The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for the third quarter of 19 was 35.

5%, a decline of 0 per year.

6ppt.

Selling / financial expense ratios decreased by 0.

7/0.

3ppt to 8.

9% / 4.

0%; management / R & D expense ratios increased by 3 respectively.

4/0.

8ppt to 13.

1% / 14.

3%, mainly due to the increase in labor costs caused by manual intervention management and R & D personnel, the overall expense ratio rose during the period3.

1ppt.

In the third quarter of 19, the company’s net profit increased by zero.

2%, a decline of 4 per year.

0ppt.

In the third quarter of 19, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities turned 深圳丝袜会所 negative, with a net repeat of zero.

24ppm, a reduction of 0 compared with the same period last year.

6.9 billion yuan.

Development Trend The growth rate of the robot body is faster than that of the industry, and the system integration business is shrinking. The core business of automation is basically stable.

In terms of products: 1) The company’s robot body revenue increased by about 10% in the first three quarters, while domestic industrial robots 1-9M19 investment can replace 9%.

We believe that the company’s robots have shortened the industry that has continued this year, mainly due to the development of emerging downstream industries such as photovoltaics; 2) Due to the high base last year and the company’s active contraction of poor system integration business, 四川耍耍网 the first three quartersThe system integration plate has a vertical height of more than 50%; 3) The CNC system drifted slightly in the company’s automated core parts business, while the servo controller increased slightly, and the overall stability was basically stable.

The margin of the company’s orders has improved, and it is expected to gradually rise from the fourth quarter.

Looking forward to 4Q19, we believe that the company’s orders are expected to continue the improvement trend from September to October, and the single-quarter orders in the fourth quarter are expected to achieve c in the third quarter.

30% growth.

Looking forward to 20 years, we believe that the automation industry is expected to gradually recover with downstream improvements in consumer electronics and automobiles, and the company is also expected to resume high-speed growth; in particular, we expect the company to release and increase profits in 2020.
Earnings forecasts and estimates We cut our company’s EPS forecast for 2019/20 due to weaker-than-expected results36.
4% / 23.

8% to 0.

10/0.

18 yuan (not considering Cloos impact for the time being).

The company is currently expected to correspond to 88/49 times P / E in 2019/20.

Taking into account the downward revision of earnings forecasts and the switching of estimates, we lower the company’s target price by 15.

2% to 8.

90 yuan, corresponding to 50 times the target price-earnings ratio in 2020, compared with the current expected 2% upside, maintain a neutral rating.

The downstream recovery of the risk automation industry is slower than expected.