Vision China (000681): Chapter of Change Vision Copyright Service Leads Again
The emergence of investment logic social media and the rich mediaization of expressions brought by the advancement of communication technology have promoted the great development of the picture industry.With the “411 Incident”, Visual China has triggered important changes from customer acquisition methods, service methods, and strategic focus.In terms of customer acquisition, from “technology-driven, through the judicial system” to “focus on government mediation mechanisms, supplemented by technology”; in terms of service methods, from “service, content and demand separation” to “enhancing content matching, intelligent services enhance the experience”In terms of strategic focus, from “extensive pursuit of quantity” to “emphasis on tapping the needs of major customers and the aggregation model to serve long-tail customers.” A completely positive change is expected to regain trust and contribute to long-term performance growth. The picture library industry has three times the remaining gap in genuineness. New media needs, social / e-commerce advertising, and customized services are the breakthroughs; domestic picture industry customization, the integration of high-end and low-profit needs, and Visual China leads the way.Following the global picture industry norms, the picture library is about 0 in the size of the advertising market.9%, commercial images (including commission customization) are about 2 of the size of the advertising market.1%. Firstly, the domestic picture 成都桑拿网 library market is 6 billion, and the commercial picture market is 13 billion. The space is vast.We believe that new media needs, social / e-commerce advertising, and customized services are the main engines for commercial image growth.Overseas experience shows that high-end picture libraries are naturally monopolized, and low-profit picture libraries are fiercely competitive. The core lies in channel competition, and the difference mainly comes from “exclusiveness”.Based on this, due to the late development of copyright and the integration of different needs, vision can achieve a “dimensional reduction blow” and is in a leading position. Visual China is positioned as a high-end copyright trading platform with higher bargaining power, and a SaaS-like model guarantees continued growth.In terms of customer acquisition, the sales expense rate of the “Matthew Effect” with exclusive content and platform has been reduced; in terms of content, its own resources include Corbis and 500px, and it has maintained long-term exclusive cooperation with Getty to maintain a wide moat while enjoying high hairInterest rate; In terms of profit model, subscription model, customers maintain a high contract renewal rate, and store up for long-term growth. Investment suggestions and estimates We believe that the company’s picture business has the characteristics of SAAS, has the user stickiness and high growth of redirection, so it uses the comparable company’s price-earnings ratio method for valuation.It is expected that the company’s core picture main business revenue growth in 2019-2021 will be 7.2%, 30.1%, 27.4%, net profit is 3.10 billion, 4.02 billion, 5.3.7 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.44 yuan, 0.57 yuan, 0.77 yuan, corresponding to 45 for PE.8, 35.3, 26.5.Based on a 45-fold estimate given by comparable companies in 2020, the target price is 25.20 yuan, give the company a “buy” rating. The risk of speed being released; the risk of rapid increase in sales expenses; the risk of turnover of sales staff; the risk of lifting the ban.